My 2 Cents

Friday, March 13, 2009

The Suitors

The list is short.
  1. L & T
  2. The noisy dude BK Modi
  3. Tech Mahendra
You know that right. Yes I can hear you. Not this post is not about the list but about who is here for what.
L & T : Mr Naik is trying to play the average cost stock game. He had invested in 8 % if the paid up capital of Satyam well before Raju blew the whistle at around Rs 300 a pop. And when Raju let the cat out of the bag the share was Rs 35. The precipitous fall for L & T running into a few hundred crores. So Naik went and bought another 4 % at around Rs 35 to bring down his average share cost. He had to stop at 12 % because if he crosses the threshold 15% a open offer to the general public is triggered and the price has to be average of last 6 months share price. This will be disastrous. So L & T stopped on its tracks and waited for some clarity on SEBI & CLB revised guidelines.
Came the guidelines along with the rider that there will be transparent and open bidding process to find the true value of Satyam. L & T had no choice but to wait. A agonising wait.
L & T has a small presence in the IT space with L & T Infotech. Looking to expand. The earlier investment was a so called strategic alliance what ever it means. If L & T gets to land Satyam it will be a windfall and a biggest coup for Naik. But the catch is the FI reps in the board. These directors have clearly mandated Naik not to go beyond Rs 50 per share. A real constrain in dicey situations like this. But Naik with his reputation & clout can wriggle his way around this.

Mr BK Modi of the erstwhile Spice Telecom. Rs 2000 itch. This man in the cowboy hat has no clue on how to run a IT or ITeS behemoth. A gaint in real trouble with scandals, negative cash balance, huge litigation in US and top honchos bolting by the dozens. But Modi is not for the long haul. His immediate interest is spin off BPO and other non core divisions so he can raise cash and get his investment back into Satyam. Once this is done he will bring in - well a strategic investor and liquidate his holding and exit with a windfall. He is neither competent nor keen in long term. His longest term vision will not be beyond 36/48 months at best.

Tech Mahendra : Anand Mahendra is looking for all growth opportunities. Highly focused and pragmatic Anand is capable of turning around Satyam to its past glory is cash rich and given his presence in the IT industry specifically in the telecom space of IT has the manpower resources too. Shrewd deal maker and will come out with innovative ways of financing and leveraging Satyam's strengths - or whatever is left of it.

The most likely winner will be L & T followed by Tech Mahendra. Modi will be voted out by present FI shareholder.

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