My 2 Cents

Thursday, April 03, 2008

Bubble 2.0

If it looks like a duck, walks like a duck and quacks like a duck then chances are its a duck. Same holds good in the Tech Space. You may argue that the excesses of the 2000 era is absent. Agreed. But the excesses are in a different form.
Imagine a valuation of US$ 15 billion for my friend Mark's FaceBook. ( Jerry...... crimping about 150 m US you missed out on a golden opportunity. This could easily be the Goof-Up-of-Your-Life. If only you had cut the deal with Zuckerberg how easy it would have been to resist the Microsoft bid.) Coming back, FaceBook has no clue of a revenue stream. Slightest attempts to monetize the operation has been stiffly resisted by its incumbents.

Gone are those days of eye balls , unique visitor count, stickiness, traction et cetera. Such criteria do longer count.

FaceBook apart so many other also rans are now running for cover. Investors of all hues are ready to exit at any valuation from many non-revenue investments . Such is the desperation. We have seen this happen before and history repeats itself. Capital is getting increasingly scarce thanks largely to the mother of all American excesses - The Sub Prime Crisis. All said & done it actually good for the tech space. Its only in such shake outs the winners emerge. Also all the excess funds sloshing around is flushed out and the Valley gets lean and mean. But America being America and valley being part of it, we will get ready for Boom 3.0 and as I just mentioned history repeats itself.
We have gone through the irrational exuberance ( sorry about the cliche ) and the agonising down sizing. Don't we all learn from mistakes. Looks like a BIG no. Else how will history repeat itself.

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